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Page added on February 17, 2010

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Philippine campaign starts as race tightens

ABS CBN, MANILA, Philippines – The latest opinion poll shows two opposition lawmakers are neck-and-neck for the May 10 presidential election, but analysts say it is too early to establish a two-horse race because voters have yet to hear detailed policies from the candidates.

Arroyo, in office since 2001, is barred from running again. Allegations that she stole the 2004 presidential elections, and that her husband profited from a multi-million-dollar telecoms contract and other deals have marred her nine-year rule.

A Pulse Asia survey last month pointed to a tight race between Senator Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III, son of the country’s revered democracy icon, Corazon “Cory” Aquino and billionaire lawmaker Manuel “Manny” Villar.

The independent poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, show the two are statistically tied with 37 percent for Aquino and 35 percent for Villar.

The ruling party’s standard-bearer, former defense chief Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro and former president Joseph “Erap” Estrada, known to have a solid base among the rural poor and slum dwellers, could both pull a surprise and improve their ratings.

Estrada had a rating of 12 percent in the Pulse Asia survey while Teodoro was at 5 percent.

Ronald Holmes, political science professor and president of Pulse Asia Inc, said dramatic changes in voters’ preferences can be expected during the campaign period.

“It’s still very fluid because most voters have not really absorbed the candidates’ messages,” Holmes said, adding poverty, corruption, joblessness and high prices of basic commodities are among the main issues that resonate with the electorate.

Personalities or policies this time?

Party affiliations have historically counted for little in the Philippines, and policies have mattered less than personalities. Presidential campaigns are expensive and rely on rich families and companies — who would expect quid pro quos.

But the start of the official poll campaign on Tuesday may level the playing field for rich and not-so-well-oiled candidates alike due to an election law putting a campaign spending cap of about P500 million ($11 million) for presidential candidates, or P10 per voter.

Villar, outspending his rivals even before the start of the campaign period by buying millions of pesos worth of airtime on TV and radio, has the momentum based on the latest opinion poll, but that is no guarantee he will dominate the elections.

Investors are looking for a smooth transfer of power from a decisive and credible vote, which could outweigh any potential risk of administrative and technical troubles in the holding of the country’s first elections using automated voting machines.

Questionable election results from a tight political contest could lead to civil unrest and potential violence on the streets, spooking investors who are likely to pull out completely from Philippine assets on the first sign of a power vacuum.

The Philippines is one of Asia’s biggest sovereign debt issuers.

Candidates are expected to sing and dance on makeshift stages along with movie and TV personalities during political rallies in the next three months across the archipelago of 7,100 islands to gain people’s attention before revealing their campaign promises.

More than 50 million Filipinos are choosing a new president, vice president, about 300 lawmakers in the two-chamber Congress and more than 17,600 local government positions in the country’s first nationwide automated elections on May 10.

On Saturday, the state poll agency tested the new vote-counting machines and balloting process in mock elections held across the country. Officials said the glitches observed, such as jamming of ballots when fed into the machines, were normal and would help them fine-tune the system.
as of 02/07/2010 11:59 PM

Philippine campaign starts as race tightens

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